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Analysis and prediction on the prosperity of the paper industry in 2012

. From a long-term perspective, the in-depth implementation of green manufacturing engineering paper stocks has a certain allocation value, and the investment value will gradually appear

the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the State Forestry Administration recently jointly issued the 12th Five Year Plan for the development of the paper industry. To accelerate the transformation of traditional paper industry into a sustainable modern paper industry, the plan puts forward requirements from the aspects of optimizing product structure, enhancing industrial concentration, improving equipment level, reducing resource consumption, reducing pollution emissions, and eliminating backward production capacity

Guojin Securities believes that the plan downplays quantitative indicators and closely follows detailed policies. The key points of the plan are quantity control, structure adjustment and consumption reduction. The domestic paper price is near the bottom, and the downward space is limited. With the relaxation of monetary policy and the economy making the test piece subject to great additional strain and quickly stabilized, the paper price may usher in a rebound period in the second quarter. From the long-term perspective, the paper stocks in 2012 have a certain allocation value, and the investment value will gradually appear. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality leading enterprises that benefit from the elimination of backward production capacity and strong competitiveness

however, in the 2012 Investment Strategy Report of the paper industry, Great Wall Securities said that the paper industry would still be in a weak situation in 2012, with weak bargaining power and difficult to improve the prosperity. Its profit would decline by about 15% compared with 2011. Therefore, in 2012, the paper industry lacked overall opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to the companies with stable downstream demand and sticky prices, which are expected to achieve excess returns when pulp and paper prices run at a low level in 2012

Haitong Securities also believes that due to the centralized release of production capacity in recent years and the lack of substantial improvement in demand, the prosperity of the paper industry is difficult to improve in the short term. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the industry integration driven by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity. In this case, the leading advantages of the company will become more obvious, such as sun paper and Chenming paper. In the context of declining costs, in the short term, you can choose the stocks with strong bargaining power in the downstream, such as Zhongshun roujie, which may achieve a significant increase in performance under the condition of declining costs

composite material opportunity for automobile lightweight design (yangxingyan, engineer of Zhejiang Jixiang Automobile Research Institute Co., Ltd.)

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